Market Week: December 14, 2020

The Markets (as of market close December 11, 2020)

The Nasdaq opened the week by reaching a new high last Monday after climbing for the ninth straight day. Otherwise, stocks tumbled, as the rapid rise in COVID-19 cases had investors worried that more restrictions might be forthcoming. The Global Dow and the Dow each fell 0.5%, followed by the S&P 500 (-0.2%) and the Russell 2000 (-0.1%). Communication, technology, and utilities were the only sectors to gain ground. Treasury yields and crude oil prices declined, while the dollar was mostly higher.

Positive news on fiscal stimulus talks and COVID-19 vaccines helped drive stocks higher last Tuesday. The Russell 2000 notched a gain of 1.4% on the day, followed by the Nasdaq (0.5%), the Dow (0.35%), and the S&P 500 (0.3%). The Global Dow fell 0.2%. Crude oil prices and the dollar rose, while Treasury yields sank. Sectors driving the market higher included energy, consumer staples, health care, and materials.

The promising rhetoric on fiscal stimulus that helped drive stocks higher last Tuesday was replaced by an apparent deadlock among lawmakers on Wednesday. Several of the largest tech companies saw their stock plunge following a massive sell-off by investors. The Nasdaq, which fell nearly 2.0%, suffered its worst day in a month. The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 lost nearly 1.0% on the day, while the Dow dropped 0.4%. The Global Dow avoided a tumble, gaining 0.1%. Treasury bond prices fell driving yields higher. Crude oil prices dipped, while the dollar advanced.

Stocks were mixed last Thursday with the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 posting gains, while the Dow and the S&P 500 fell. The Global Dow broke even by the end of the day's trading. A spike in the number of jobless claims didn't help investor confidence. Among the sectors, energy surged, with financials and information technology eking out minimal gains. Crude oil prices rose, while Treasury yields and the dollar fell.

Equities closed generally lower last Friday with only the Dow posting a modest 0.2% gain. The Global Dow (-0.7%), the Russell 2000 (-0.6%), the Nasdaq (-0.2%), and the S&P 500 (-0.1%) each lost value by the close of Friday's trading. Crude oil prices and Treasury yields fell, while the dollar was mixed. A few of the market sectors advanced led by communication services (1.2%), consumer staples (0.3%), industrials (0.2%), and utilities (0.2%). Energy and financials fell nearly 1.0%.

Stocks closed generally lower for the week, led by the Global Dow, followed by the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow. The small caps of the Russell 2000 posted a notable gain of more than 1.0% for the week. Investors got mixed messages on progress toward more fiscal stimulus, and concerns about the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine weighed on investors. Year to date, the Nasdaq remains w

Melissa MinterDecember 15, 2020

Overview

Click here to download PDF

The year began with the government stymied by a shutdown, and ended with articles of impeachment levied against the president. In between, both domestic and global economies showed signs of slowing, all while the trade war between the United States and China loomed throughout the year. Nevertheless, investors remained relatively bullish toward stocks, pushing several major indexes to record highs.

While domestic economic growth may have slowed in 2019 compared to 2018, it showed resilience and stamina. The third-quarter gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% — moderately down from 2018's 3.0% rate, yet still strong enough to outpace global economic growth by a considerable margin. Consumer spending — which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy — surged, buoyed by a strong labor market, near-record unemployment, solid wage growth, and a burgeoning stock market. All told, the domestic economic expansion continued into its 11th straight year, the longest run in U.S. history.

Last year saw trade disputes between the United States and several of its trade partners reach an accord, but the trade war with China roared. The world's two largest economies engaged in a tit-for-tat skirmish, with each country volleying tariffs on their respective imports at the expense of the exporting nation. Coincidentally, a limited deal was announced just before the holiday shopping season, with the U.S. agreeing to forgo new tariffs and China assenting to allow more U.S. agricultural imports. Further negotiations are presumed, but the relationship between the economic giants remains tenuous at best.

Not only did the ongoing trade war affect global economies, but it also impacted domestic business investment, industrial production, and exports. Part of the justification cited by the Federal Reserve for lowering interest rates three times last year was weakness in business fixed investment and exports. As of November, new orders for durable goods were down 1.3% from the same period in 2018, and business (nonresidential) investment fell 2.3% in the third quarter.

The new year begins with a strong stock market and solid economic growth. The Secure Act, passed in late December, should change the retirement planning (and saving) landscape to some extent. However, the Treasury budget deficit for fiscal 2019 (October 2018-September 2019) exceeded $980 billion — 26% higher than the 2018 fiscal-year deficit. The trade war with China may cool with more mutual concessions, or accelerate, which would continue to dampen global economic growth. The new year will begin with the impeachment process and end with November's presidential election. What happens in between is anyone's guess. Will unemployment and inflation remain low? Will stocks continue to experience growth? Will oil and gas prices moderate or surge? Will the domestic economy continue to accelerate, or suffer a setback? Can the world economy recover, or will it continue to stagnate? If nothing else, 2020 looks to be an interesting year.

News

Market Week: December 14, 2020

Overview

AZ, CA, CO, CT, ID, LA, NM, PA, TX, WI