Market Week: May 10, 2021

The Markets (as of market close May 7, 2021)

Stocks opened generally higher last Monday, with only the Nasdaq (-0.5%) losing ground. The Dow closed up 0.7%, followed by the Global Dow (0.6%), the Russell 2000 (0.5%), and the S&P 500 (0.3%). Losses in consumer discretionary, communication services, real estate, and information technology were offset by gains in energy, materials, health care, industrials, consumer staples, and financials. Crude oil prices rose by more than 1.3%, pushing the price per barrel over $64.40. The dollar and Treasury yields slid.

Tech shares plunged lower last Tuesday, sending the Nasdaq (-1.9%) to its worst single-day performance since March. By the end of trading, only the Dow was able to avoid a losing session — and only barely as it inched up 0.1%. The Russell 2000 fell 1.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.7%, and the Global Dow declined 0.6%. Information technology lost 1.9%, consumer discretionary fell 1.2%, and communication services decreased 0.9%. Sectors posting positive returns were materials (1.0%), financials (0.7%), and industrials (0.4%). The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined for the second consecutive day, while the dollar and crude oil prices advanced.

Last Wednesday saw stocks close generally mixed, with the Global Dow (1.1%), the Dow (0.3%), and the S&P 500 (0.1%) posting moderate gains, while the Nasdaq (-0.4%) and the Russell 2000 (-0.3%) fell. Treasury yields continued to fall, as bond prices advanced. Crude oil prices and the dollar declined. Among the sectors, energy (3.3%), materials (1.3%), and financials (0.9%) held up the best, while utilities (-1.7%) and real estate (-1.5%) fell the furthest.

Melissa MinterMay 11, 2021

Overview

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The year began with the government stymied by a shutdown, and ended with articles of impeachment levied against the president. In between, both domestic and global economies showed signs of slowing, all while the trade war between the United States and China loomed throughout the year. Nevertheless, investors remained relatively bullish toward stocks, pushing several major indexes to record highs.

While domestic economic growth may have slowed in 2019 compared to 2018, it showed resilience and stamina. The third-quarter gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% — moderately down from 2018's 3.0% rate, yet still strong enough to outpace global economic growth by a considerable margin. Consumer spending — which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy — surged, buoyed by a strong labor market, near-record unemployment, solid wage growth, and a burgeoning stock market. All told, the domestic economic expansion continued into its 11th straight year, the longest run in U.S. history.

Last year saw trade disputes between the United States and several of its trade partners reach an accord, but the trade war with China roared. The world's two largest economies engaged in a tit-for-tat skirmish, with each country volleying tariffs on their respective imports at the expense of the exporting nation. Coincidentally, a limited deal was announced just before the holiday shopping season, with the U.S. agreeing to forgo new tariffs and China assenting to allow more U.S. agricultural imports. Further negotiations are presumed, but the relationship between the economic giants remains tenuous at best.

Not only did the ongoing trade war affect global economies, but it also impacted domestic business investment, industrial production, and exports. Part of the justification cited by the Federal Reserve for lowering interest rates three times last year was weakness in business fixed investment and exports. As of November, new orders for durable goods were down 1.3% from the same period in 2018, and business (nonresidential) investment fell 2.3% in the third quarter.

The new year begins with a strong stock market and solid economic growth. The Secure Act, passed in late December, should change the retirement planning (and saving) landscape to some extent. However, the Treasury budget deficit for fiscal 2019 (October 2018-September 2019) exceeded $980 billion — 26% higher than the 2018 fiscal-year deficit. The trade war with China may cool with more mutual concessions, or accelerate, which would continue to dampen global economic growth. The new year will begin with the impeachment process and end with November's presidential election. What happens in between is anyone's guess. Will unemployment and inflation remain low? Will stocks continue to experience growth? Will oil and gas prices moderate or surge? Will the domestic economy continue to accelerate, or suffer a setback? Can the world economy recover, or will it continue to stagnate? If nothing else, 2020 looks to be an interesting year.

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Market Week: May 10, 2021

Overview

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