Market Week: November 9, 2020

The Markets (as of market close November 6, 2020)

Stocks rebounded last Monday with each of the benchmark indexes gaining value, led by the Russell 2000, which added 2.0%, followed by the Global Dow, the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq. Treasury yields fell while the dollar and crude oil prices advanced. It is unclear what drove the market uptick. Some analysts suggest investors may see fiscal relief coming shortly after the election, while others proffer that the market gains were nothing more than dip-buying following last week's selloff. Each of the major market sectors ended the day in the black, with energy and materials each advancing more than 3.0%.

Equities continued to rally last Tuesday. Election day saw the small caps of the Russell 2000 jump over 3.0% while each of the other benchmark indexes gained at least 1.8%. Treasury yields climbed nearly 4.0% as banks and financials posted solid gains. Crude oil prices advanced 2.9%, but remain below $40 per barrel. The dollar weakened. Although crude oil prices rose, overall energy was the only major sector to lose value last Tuesday. In addition to financials, consumer discretionary and industrials each gained more than 2.0% on the day.

Communication services, technology, health care, and consumer discretionary sectors posted robust gains, pushing market indexes higher last Wednesday. Although the election had yet to be officially decided, investors may be anticipating a fiscal stimulus package, which would provide more resources for investment. The Nasdaq was the big winner, gaining 3.9% on the day, followed by the S&P 500 (2.2%), the Dow (1.6%), the Global Dow (0.6%), and the Russell 2000 (0.05%). Treasury yields and the dollar dropped, while crude oil prices advanced for the third consecutive day.

The market continued to rally last Thursday. The S&P 500 climbed 2.0% and was on track for its best week since April. Tech stocks surged, pushing the Nasdaq ahead 2.6% on the day and more than 9.0% for the week. The Russell 2000 led the pack, advancing 2.8% by the end of trading. Globally, stocks also posted notable gains, driving the Global Dow up 2.1%. Treasury prices fell, moving yields higher. Crude oil prices sank and the dollar fell to its lowest level in more than two years. Among the market sectors, only energy lost, while technology and materials gained 3.1% and 4.1%, respectively.

Melissa MinterNovember 11, 2020

Overview

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The year began with the government stymied by a shutdown, and ended with articles of impeachment levied against the president. In between, both domestic and global economies showed signs of slowing, all while the trade war between the United States and China loomed throughout the year. Nevertheless, investors remained relatively bullish toward stocks, pushing several major indexes to record highs.

While domestic economic growth may have slowed in 2019 compared to 2018, it showed resilience and stamina. The third-quarter gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% — moderately down from 2018's 3.0% rate, yet still strong enough to outpace global economic growth by a considerable margin. Consumer spending — which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy — surged, buoyed by a strong labor market, near-record unemployment, solid wage growth, and a burgeoning stock market. All told, the domestic economic expansion continued into its 11th straight year, the longest run in U.S. history.

Last year saw trade disputes between the United States and several of its trade partners reach an accord, but the trade war with China roared. The world's two largest economies engaged in a tit-for-tat skirmish, with each country volleying tariffs on their respective imports at the expense of the exporting nation. Coincidentally, a limited deal was announced just before the holiday shopping season, with the U.S. agreeing to forgo new tariffs and China assenting to allow more U.S. agricultural imports. Further negotiations are presumed, but the relationship between the economic giants remains tenuous at best.

Not only did the ongoing trade war affect global economies, but it also impacted domestic business investment, industrial production, and exports. Part of the justification cited by the Federal Reserve for lowering interest rates three times last year was weakness in business fixed investment and exports. As of November, new orders for durable goods were down 1.3% from the same period in 2018, and business (nonresidential) investment fell 2.3% in the third quarter.

The new year begins with a strong stock market and solid economic growth. The Secure Act, passed in late December, should change the retirement planning (and saving) landscape to some extent. However, the Treasury budget deficit for fiscal 2019 (October 2018-September 2019) exceeded $980 billion — 26% higher than the 2018 fiscal-year deficit. The trade war with China may cool with more mutual concessions, or accelerate, which would continue to dampen global economic growth. The new year will begin with the impeachment process and end with November's presidential election. What happens in between is anyone's guess. Will unemployment and inflation remain low? Will stocks continue to experience growth? Will oil and gas prices moderate or surge? Will the domestic economy continue to accelerate, or suffer a setback? Can the world economy recover, or will it continue to stagnate? If nothing else, 2020 looks to be an interesting year.

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Market Week: November 9, 2020

Overview

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